Is it really happening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ052I3m4NU

‘Will that time come? I don’t think I am ready for that’

I guess no one feels ready to take such a responsibility Aldo but sometimes things are just inevitable.

‘So is it inevitable?’

I can’t be sure but we could examine some facts.

We have to start from the hardware, which in my opinion is the safest prediction we can make, since it is purely based on facts like the capabilities of CPU processors. The progress in this domain has been rapid during the past few years and it is the main reason why hope to achieve the Singularity has been restored among many of the philosophers. During the 70s and 80s there was a slump in the money being spent on evolving the capabilities of supercomputers but this didn’t last very long. Gradually more and more attention was drew to AI and the belief that it represents the future meant more resources in the research towards this direction. Right now the two strongest supercomputers are two IBM-built computers, Summit and Sierra, installed at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, respectively.

The problem is that we don’t exactly know how close we are to manufacturing hardware that could support human-like intelligence since we haven’t yet fully understood the true power of a single neuron. In fact the competence of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed.

‘But still you haven’t answered me’

Here it is then. I strongly believe that the Singularity is unavoidable. Like every change or revolution in history I don’t expect it to be as smooth or peaceful as many might think. It looks like an avalanche coming down to Homo Sapiens dominion on earth. If I had to be more precise I would guess that this avalanche would happen in around 30 years from now. It is kind of funny how this number, 30, keeps popping up every time someone tries to make a prediction about the Singularity. Maybe it happens because of the addiction that the human mind has with the number three. But the one thing that it is different this time is that humanity is the one starting this avalanche. Therefore we get to choose the starting values of it, we can be in a way the regulators of its coming. And this small difference could give us a huge advantage in our struggle to coexist with this new way of life.

But then again, how predictable can an avalanche be?